Kalshi, the U.S. prediction market platform that became one of the most disruptive forces in finance over the past two years, is expanding outside America for the first time. Its partner: XP Inc., Brazil’s largest brokerage with 4.8 million active clients.

The deal will let XP clients trade yes-or-no contracts tied to Brazilian economic indicators – things like whether inflation will hit a certain number, or whether interest rates will move. Initially, the contracts will be available through Clear Corretora, an XP-owned brokerage brand, via international accounts routed through XP’s U.S. arm. That structure lets both companies operate within existing regulatory frameworks without needing new approvals.

The timing matters. Brazil’s securities regulator, the CVM, recently authorized the São Paulo stock exchange operator B3 to explore prediction markets structured as derivatives, not gambling products. That’s the same classification Kalshi uses in the U.S., where it operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange. If Brazil follows that framework, prediction markets enter the country through the finance door, not the betting door, which means different rules, different tax treatment, and different legitimacy.

Kalshi raised $300 million in a Series D last October at a $5 billion valuation, led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia. It opened its platform globally at the same time – now available in 140+ countries – but the XP partnership is its first structured distribution deal with a major foreign brokerage.

The bigger picture: prediction markets proved their value during the 2024 U.S. election, when Kalshi and Polymarket consistently outperformed polls in forecasting results. The thesis is that markets, where people put real money behind their beliefs, produce better information than surveys, models, or pundits. That idea is now being exported. Brazil, with its massive retail investor base, deep appetite for macro trades, and chronic economic volatility, is arguably the perfect testing ground. 

If you live in a country where inflation, interest rates, and currency moves dominate daily conversation, a platform that lets you trade directly on those outcomes isn’t a novelty: it’s a tool.